By Randy Myers
Republicans face a difficult political environment heading into the November midterm elections amid rising living costs and dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s policies, according to Isaac Arnsdorf, White House bureau chief for The Washington Post. Democrats, meanwhile, have emerged as contenders to take control of both chambers of Congress.
Speaking at the Stable Value Investment Association (SVIA) Fall Forum in October, Arnsdorf said Democrats’ improved prospects extend even to Senate races in traditionally Republican states. The outcome of the elections could have significant implications for federal legislation, congressional oversight, and the administration’s use of executive authority during the final two years of Trump’s presidency.
“I’ve never heard Republicans talk like this before,” Arnsdorf said, describing an unusual sense of resignation among party officials. “There’s a stereotype of Republicans always being overconfident. . . . The Democrats are still not acting as confident as the polls suggest they could, but I just really have never heard the kind of resignation from Republicans that I’m hearing now, which is weird.”
Cost of Living Drives Voter Dissatisfaction
Gasoline prices have emerged as the defining issue of the election, Arnsdorf said. The administration had anticipated that prices would return to normal by Labor Day following what it projected would be a short war with Iran, but they instead moved higher just as voters began focusing on the approaching elections. Gasoline prices are particularly difficult for politicians to explain away, Arnsdorf observed, because consumers experience them directly whenever they fill their tanks.
Rising prices for beef and other commodities, along with higher utility rates, have added to voter dissatisfaction. Beef prices present a particular dilemma for Republicans because efforts to reduce consumer prices could hurt ranchers, an important constituency in Republican-leaning states.
Arnsdorf noted that Trump’s successful 2024 campaign was built on his promises to address the cost of living, avoid new wars, and conduct mass deportations. Dissatisfaction with the administration’s performance on all three issues has weakened support among independents while also dampening enthusiasm among some Republican voters.
An NPR/PBS News/Marist survey conducted in September underscored Republicans’ difficulties on economic issues. It found that registered voters trusted Democrats over Republicans to handle the economy by 42% to 34% and gasoline prices by 40% to 27%. Meanwhile, polls showed Democrats leading Republicans by an average of 49.8% to 41.6% on a generic congressional ballot as of September 23.
Democrats Eye Congressional Gains
A number of Senate races that appeared difficult for Democrats at the beginning of the election cycle have become competitive, Arnsdorf said. He noted that Democrats must defend seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia while seeking Republican-held seats in North Carolina and several other traditionally Republican states.
“At the beginning of the cycle, that looked like a really, really tall order, really out of reach, even among the most bullish Democrats,” he said. Yet Democrats were now leading or tied in most polls in those states, he noted, and the Cook Political Report had them favored to win the Senate.
The battle for the House has been complicated by an unusual round of mid-decade redistricting. Republicans initiated efforts to redraw congressional maps in Texas and several other states, seeking to improve their chances of retaining control of the chamber. Democrats responded with their own redistricting efforts, most notably in California and Virginia.
Arnsdorf warned that Republicans’ redistricting strategies could actually backfire to the extent that they have spread Republican voters across more districts. That risk is particularly pronounced in districts redrawn on the assumption that Hispanic voters would continue supporting Republicans at 2024 levels, he said, as polling suggests Republican support among Latino voters has since deteriorated.
An analysis by election forecasting firm Decision Desk HQ, presented by Arnsdorf, illustrated the potential consequences. Although Republican redistricting efforts were intended to produce a net gain of 10 House seats for the party, the firm’s September forecast instead projected a net Democratic gain of approximately two seats from the revised congressional maps.
Implications for Legislation
For retirement industry professionals, a consequential question heading into the midterms is what a shift in congressional control would mean for legislation affecting retirement plans. Arnsdorf said Democratic control of either chamber would likely bring much of Trump’s legislative agenda to a halt while expanding congressional investigations and oversight of the administration.
Routine legislative activity would likely continue, however, particularly on must-pass bills to fund government operations or reauthorize federal programs. Those bills could become vehicles for other policy initiatives.
“What policy priorities can they each attach and force through because this is a must-pass bill?” Arnsdorf asked.
Questioned about retirement-related legislation, Arnsdorf suggested bipartisan opportunities could remain even under divided government. As an example, he cited permitting reform, which has attracted support from lawmakers in both parties because of concerns that regulations have made construction and development unnecessarily difficult.
“So you could see retirement falling into categories like that, and you could also see it being something that becomes one of these riders in a must-pass bill,” Arnsdorf said.
Executive Action Could Accelerate
Even if Democrats gain control of Congress, Arnsdorf does not expect the administration’s policymaking efforts to stop. Asked whether regulatory initiatives involving cryptocurrencies, alternative investments, and retirement plans could continue under a divided government, Arnsdorf said Trump would likely turn to executive authority if legislative options became unavailable. The administration could pursue such actions even if they invited legal challenges, he observed, relying on the Supreme Court to resolve disputes over the president’s authority. Although the Court has not consistently sided with the administration in such cases, its conservative majority has often provided a receptive forum.
Polling Uncertainty Remains
Despite the favorable polling environment for Democrats, Arnsdorf cautioned against treating election forecasts as certain. He described growing concerns about the reliability of polling, including difficulties recruiting respondents. Republican voters, in particular, have been harder for pollsters to reach by telephone, he said. That could reflect diminished enthusiasm that translates into lower turnout. Alternatively, it could mean that Republican voters are simply refusing to participate in surveys, potentially distorting the results.
Arnsdorf noted that polling errors in recent presidential elections have tended to overstate Democratic support, but that the 2018 and 2022 midterms did not exhibit the same systematic errors.
He also cautioned that even a strong Democratic showing this year might offer limited guidance about the 2028 presidential election. A favorable political environment, he suggested, can sometimes carry candidates to victory despite weaknesses that might prove more consequential in a different election cycle.